ABCA issues watershed conditions statement—Flood outlook/water safety

Warm temperatures and additional rainfall from Wednesday, February 18, 2026 are expected to increase water levels across the Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) watershed.

Actual observed temperatures and rainfall over the next several days will determine the volume of runoff and how much of the snowpack melts. With saturated soils, a quick runoff is expected.

Based on the most current weather forecasts, river flow models are suggesting that minor flooding in low-lying undeveloped flood plain areas is likely. This may impact some secondary roads that are traditionally flood prone. Ice jams are possible.

Residents are advised to use caution near creeks and rivers and to keep children and pets well away from all waterways. Slippery, snow-covered or unstable streambanks, and fast-moving, cold water can pose serious safety hazards. Any ice remaining on waterbodies should be considered unsafe.

This message will remain in effect until 12:00 p.m. Monday, February 12, 2026, unless otherwise updated. 

See the full notice on the Ausable Bayfield flood messages page.